Cite this article: Wu, H., Guo, E., Yan, P. et al. A quantitative evaluation model for the seismic resilience of water supply systems based on fragility analysis. Sustainability, 15(16), 12137(2023). https://doi.org/10.3390/su151612137

 

A quantitative evaluation model for the seismic resilience of water supply systems based on fragility analysis

Houli Wu, Endong Guo*, Peilei Yan  and Jingyi Liu

Corresponding author: Endong Guo

 

Houli Wu, Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, No. 29 Xuefu Road, Harbin, Heilongjiang, People’s Republic of China, 150080, whouli@yeah.net

 

Endong Guo, Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, No. 29 Xuefu Road, Harbin, Heilongjiang, People’s Republic of China, 150080, iemged@263.net

 

Peilei Yan, Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, No. 29 Xuefu Road, Harbin, Heilongjiang, People’s Republic of China, 150080, yanpeilei325@163.com

 

Jingyi Liu, Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, No. 29 Xuefu Road, Harbin, Heilongjiang, People’s Republic of China, 150080, ljy04062@163.com

 

Abstract：

A quantitative evaluation model is proposed to assess seismic resilience of water supply systems. The water supply system is divided into three parts: water sources, aboveground infrastructures, and underground pipeline network, and importance factors for the different parts are quantified. Resilience demand is expressed as the desirable functionality loss and the recovery time of the water supply system after an earthquake. First, seismic fragility models are established for the different components of the water supply system. A water quality index is utilized to represent the impact of earthquakes on the water sources, the seismic performances of aboveground infra-structures are represented by fragility curves, and repair rate in terms of number of repairs per kilometer is adopted for the pipeline network. Then, the post-earthquake functionality of the water supply system is quantified based on seismic fragility analysis. Changes in the water quality index are used to indicate the functionality losses related to water sources, the functionality losses of aboveground infrastructures are represented by the economic losses derived from component fragility curves, and post-earthquake functionality losses in underground pipeline network are quantified by hydraulic simulations. The functionalities of the three parts are calculated separately, and then the overall system functionalities are obtained as the sum of the weighted functionalities of the three parts. Finally, a repair strategy is developed and the recovery time is calculated considering the system damage scenarios, system functionality analyses, and resource reserves. The proposed resilience assessment model considers all components of the water supply system, and the results are reliable when the basic information is complete and accurate.

 

Keywords: water supply system; seismic resilience; fragility; different components; functionality loss; recovery time

 

 

Figure 2. Framework for seismic resilience assessment of the water supply system.